Likely champion...but not this week

The Brazilian Grand Prix is the penultimate race of the season but there’s not suggestion that it’s going to offer up a Formula One champion. No, this season is going to the wire in Abu Dhabi.

Qualifying is just about to get under way at Interlagos in wet conditions with championship leader Alonso hoping to start on pole ahead of possible title challengers Mark Webber, Lewis Hamilton, Sebastian Vettel and Jenson Button. In reality, the only drivers in with a real shout are Webber on Hamilton, going off form and reliability so far this season. However, this is Formula One and anything could happen – Button could win both races and if those ahead of him fail to finish high enough he could end up retaining his World Championship.

The title is in Alonso’s hands with a first, second or third finish capable of handing him the title depending on the positions of his rivals. This, from the BBC Sport website, explains the title situation right now:

• If Alonso wins in Brazil, he will be champion unless Webber is higher than fourth
• If Alonso is second, he will be champion unless Webber is higher than eighth, Hamilton higher than fourth or Vettel wins
• If Alonso is third, he will be champion unless Webber finishes in the top 10, Hamilton in the top four and Vettel in the top three
• If Alonso does not finish on the podium, it will go to Abu Dhabi
• Button can only stay in contention if he finishes first or second but is out if Alonso finishes in the top six or if Webber is in the top two
• Vettel must beat Alonso on track to stay in contention

As you can see, Alonso remains favourite but the chances of him wrapping up the title this weekend are unlikely. Possible, but unlikely. That Alonso will end up winning the Formula One championship, however, seems to me to be a near certainty. I feel he will gain a podium finish in Brazil but Webber and Hamilton will do enough to remain in contention. The rest will fall by the wayside so we’ll have a three-way shoot out in Abu Dhabi.

What a race that will be if it proves to be the case. Looking forward to that far more than this weekend. After such an exciting season, which has seen eight changes at the top of the title table – a record – it will be quite disappointing if the race was settled tomorrow. It should go to the last race, it’s fitting.

I tipped Alonso for the title a few weeks back on our Facebook page and I’m not changing my mind. Still, as an Englishman I would love to see Hamilton regain the title or even, by a miracle, Button retain it!

Who do you think will win and who do you want to win?

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“Twenty points is a massive gap with four races to go. I have to hope for something,” Hamilton told BBC Sport. The way Alonso is going at the moment though, he’s unlikely to get it. The Spaniard has now won three of the last five races following his victory in Singapore and sits just 11 points behind Webber.

Hamilton is now 20 points behind, Sebastian Vettel 21 points back and Jenson Button 25 points adrift. All are still in with a shout of clinching the Drivers’ Championship but the momentum is definitely with Alonso. He himself has claimed he’s in top form and is going to chase it right to the end – which is exactly how it could work out in this, the most exciting of Formula One seasons in a long time.

“Right now, at this point of the championship, I’m at a peak – 100% motivated, focused etc…It feels like the championship is starting now, so I feel very happy we will be going to Japan next race.”

Fernando Alonso

Webber still has the title in his hands. Consistent podium finishes will see him home to his first Championship but if he slips, Alonso is ready. For the rest they need a miracle – or rather a disaster for Webber and Alonso with only four races remaining.

It’s a wonder Alonso has forced himself into contention in the Ferrari which his team mate Massa has struggled with all season. There’s no question Red Bull have the quickest car but Ferrari have worked hard on their vehicle and it’s reaping its rewards now.

McLaren haven’t had it easy with the hardware and their drivers are only in with a shout because they are the best two out on the track this season. If Hamilton and Button were driving for Red Bull this would have been a two horse race between them, wth the rest way behind.

As we all know though, it’s the combination of car and driver that matters and McLaren haven’t been good enough. I don’t think either of the drivers will get a sniff of a victory between now and the end of the season.

If Ferrari retain their recent consistency I’m tipping Alonso to snatch the title from Webber. If not, Webber will take it home. It really is a case of who blinks first loses here and I’m thoroughly enjoying the way this season is playing out.

Who is your pick to lift the title in Abu Dhabi?

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The Italian team had set out at the weekend to make a statement and get back into the championship race and to be fair to them they did just that, leading the majority of the race through Massa with Alonso second.

However, it became clear that Alonso was marginally quicker than his team mate and with Red Bull’s Sebastian Vettel threatening to challenge for the lead Ferrari took the decision to ‘hint’ to their drivers that Alonso should be allowed through to prevent a proper race between the two drivers.

“Fernando is faster than you. Can you confirm you understand?”

Those were the words of Ferrari’s race engineer Rob Smedley to Massa and moments later the Brazilian allowed Alonso through – as clear a case of team orders as there can be. That was confirmed when the Ferrari team were punished post-race with a trifling £100,000 fine.

Guilty as charged then, but it’s the level of punishment I’m taking issue with here. Rule 39.1 was put in place to prevent just this sort of thing and to give the F1 audience proper racing up front. Both McLaren and Red Bull have allowed their drivers to fight it out for the lead this season and Ferrari should have done the same.

Instead they cheated, pure and simple. It would have been fantastic viewing to watch Alonso and Massa battle each other and it could also have allowed Vettel to get involved too, serving up a three way fight for the victory. Who wouldn’t want to see that?

Ferrari robbed us all of that chance and as such should have had both drivers disqualified. It may have been unsatisfactory, but so was what happened. It would also have sent a clear message to the other teams that team orders will not be tolerated.

Eddie Jordan was apoplectic with what happened, as you would expect from the fiery Irishman.

“It was unlawful and was theft. They stole from us the chance of having a wheel-to-wheel contest between the drivers. Ferrari should be ashamed. This was a team order. For me, it is cheating and these two cars should be excluded.”

Strong but fair words in my opinion, and it’s rare I agree with Jordan. This is potentially the best F1 season in a very long time. Ferrari – and a weak willed FIA – have put that at risk by inferring you can get away with only a small fine if you want to cheat. It’s outrageous and the precedent set will not discourage team orders being used in the future.

Not that I’m surprised. As I said, Ferrari have a lot of power in Formula One and they put it to good use here, forcing their way back into contention for the championships through very underhand tactics. I can only hope Red Bull and McLaren reinstate their dominance so far this season and ensure Ferrari have had their moment of ‘glory’ for this year.

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It was McLaren’s Lewis Hamilton starting on pole, breaking Red Bull’s hold on qualifying for the first time in quite a while. Mark Webber started second with team mate Sebastian Vettel in third and Ferrari’s Fernando Alonso in fourth. Hamilton’s team mate and reigning world champion Jenson Button started fifth on the grid.

What followed was an incident packed race with all the top five in qualifying having the possibility of winning. As it turned out pit stop strategy and traffic allowed Hamilton and Button to clinch a much needed one-two finish for McLaren with Alonso separating the English team from the two Red Bulls of Vettel and Webber respectively.

The win, his second in as many races, puts Hamilton on top of the Drivers Championship, just three points ahead of Button and displacing Mark Webber, while McLaren go top of the Constructors Championship.

After a couple of months of Red Bull dominance, McLaren have dragged themselves – and their drivers – back into serious contention and it looks like it will be nip and tuck for the rest of the season. Red Bull still have the best car, but it seems McLaren have the better brains at the moment.

There was no repeat of the in-team racing that saw Webber and Vettel ruin each others chances in the last Grand Prix and while Button chased down Hamilton’s lead in the last few laps in Canada there wasn’t really any danger of the two going head to head for the lead. Those rivalries remain, however, and it won’t take much for flare up.

Further back in the field frustrated seven time world champion Michael Schumacher was having a nightmare, Not used to being overtaken by upstarts such as Buemi and Liuzzi, he boiled over in an incident with Massa towards the end of the race, seeming to turn into the Brazilian slightly, damaging his front wing. It was referred to the stewards but no further action will be taken.

You have to question Schumacher’s decision to return to the sport. He has nothing to prove and will only tarnish his reputation – especially if he allows his frustrations to get the better of him on the track. His legendary status may have spared him punishment this time round, I don’t know, but any other driver would surely have received some kind of penalty.

Where this year’s title will go is anyone’s guess now. It’s a four way battle between between the drivers of McLaren and Red Bull and it’s fantastic. Hamilton is the form driver right now, Button won’t give up and will grab any opportunity presented to him, Webber is having his best ever season and Vettel has talent oozing out of his pores.

Could go any way.

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Vettel ignites Red Bull rivalry

Honest to God, it’s like we’re psychic here at Sporting Fare. No sooner had we speculated on the simmering rivalries at McLaren and Red Bull Sebastian Vettel decided it would be a good idea to run Mark Webber off the road and hand McLaren a one-two at the Turkish Grand Prix last Sunday.

Neither man was willing to accept blame for the collision which put Vettel out of the race and relegated Webber to third behind Hamilton and Button, but for us and almost everybody else the fault lay with Vettel for turning into his team mate. Interestingly, Red Bull boss Christian Horner seemed to find fault with Webber just after the race but we reckon he’ll have had time to reflect since and see that it was all down to Vettel.

Either way, he was rightly furious with his drivers. What should have been a third straight win for Webber and a one-two finish to strengthen Red Bull’s grip on the Constructors Championship was ruined in one moment of madness.

Smug smiles in the McLaren pit though as both Hamilton and Button regained ground in the Drivers Championship. The relationship between the two Englishmen seems to be holding strong in spite of the fact they are fighting each other for the title.

In Turkey they raced one another hard but, as both men pointed out, fairly. In the end both had to switch to fuel saving mode which meant that Hamilton got the win by default after some good racing between the two which saw a couple of overtaking manoeuvres. Team orders are, of course, illegal in F1 now but handily for the teams “saving fuel” remains a legal tactic and you can hardly blame McLaren for making sure both their men finished the race.

We can’t imagine Button was happy to give up the race to Hamilton but he put on an accepting public front. How long he is prepared to do this – or Hamilton for that matter – should the two end up really fighting for the number one spot we’ll have to see.

For now, attention switches firmly to Red Bull, Webber and Vettel. The next Grand Prix is in Canada on June 13th and should Webber out-qualify his team mate for a fourth race in a row you can bet that now obvious rivalry and resentment will once again come to the surface.

It’s starting to look like a four horse race but Red Bull still hold the advantage with a superior car over McLaren. Now they just need to make sure their drivers are, if not on the same page, at least not in the same racing line because McLaren are ready and waiting to take advantage of any mistakes.

This is all what Formula One needs, of course. Team mates racing each other for victories, a tight title race and simmering rivalries. Far, FAR better than a best car wins procession. Loving it.

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Webber success causing Red Bull friction?

Despite McLaren’s early improvement on a shaky start during which Jenson Button went top of the Drivers rankings Red Bull have stormed through the last three races with Webber leading the charge. He now sits at the top of the rankings, as do Red Bull in the Constructors Championship.

It is no real surprise the Red Bull have the best car on the track. That was clear from the start of the season. What is a surprise is that it is Webber, not Vettel, that has taken up the mantle of World Champion contender.

A while back, we wrote a post anticipating fireworks at McLaren as the current and former World Champions battled it for this year’s title. Cracks were beginning to show as McLaren number one (so many thought) Hamilton struggled to keep pace with Button in the same car. McLaren were gradually switching there focus to Button and Hamilton, understandably, was not happy.

The pair presented a united front in public but such is the driven nature (pun very much intended) of a racing driver that behind closed doors we have no doubt Hamilton was feeling frustrated while Button was feeling slightly smug.

However, with the growing dominance of Red Bull we now wonder if the expected fireworks may now explode in their garage. Vettel was undisputed number one at Red Bull when the season started. Full of promise and talent, Red Bull were fully focused on him to lead their challenge this year.

Webber, though, had other ideas and three pole positions in a row, including for this weekend’s Turkish Grand Prix, and two wins in a row in Monaco and Spain has surely given Red Bull pause for thought.

Neither driver was particularly happy with the car in qualifying but nevertheless they sit one and three on the grid, with a confident sounding Hamilton splitting them and Button just behind Vettel. It makes for a fantastic race tomorrow, that’s for sure.

And as Jonathan Legard wrote in his BBC blog on Friday: “The in-house rivalry at Red Bull has become far more intense than many of us bargained for at the start of the season.”

Perhaps more intense than that at McLaren…at least unless or until McLaren retake the initiative in the championship race.

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Trouble brewing at McLaren? Hope so!

I used to be a big fan of Formula One, back in the Mansell, Senna and Prost days. They were characters. Yes, even Mansell with his deadpan voice.

Then the characters left the sport, just as they have in snooker, and I drifted away. Not for me the non-entity that was Damon Hill or the machine that was Michael Schumacher.

Then, over the last few of seasons, my interest was piqued again…

A remarkably young Lewis Hamilton threatened to clinch the world championship and then did. He was quickly followed by a somewhat arrogant but likeable Jenson Button. And chasing them both are the likes of Mark Webber and Sebastian Vettel in amazing cars.

I’ll admit that a bit of patriotism also helps spark the interest too. But the emergence of new teams is also a breath of fresh air alongside the new stars of Formula One.

But THIS season threatens to be the best for years. Why? Because Button and Hamilton are in the same team and when winners like that get together, there are usually fireworks. Especially when there is a team with a faster car and competent drivers applying the pressure, thank you very much Red Bull and Webber/Vettel.

Button, the reigning world champion, had already served notice to Hamilton, the former world champion, that he was not about to play second fiddle to him McLaren Mercedes with his victory in Austria. In that race, Button made the right decisions, but Hamilton drove the better race. Nevertheless, McLaren can be considered Hamilton’s team but no way is Button not going to fight for his title.

On Sunday, however, it was a different story. Button was magnificent. So was Hamilton but in a real race situation in wet, difficult conditions, Button came out on top. Hamilton will not be happy, no matter how much he publicly supports his team mate. His kind never is unless he’s on top.

McLaren themselves will now be reassessing where they put the most effort this season. As every team does, whether consciously or not, McLaren will no doubt have considered Hamilton their Number One driver for this season. Button has thrown that thinking out of the window with two victories.

Now we just sit back and watch – the blue touch paper has been lit between the two drivers and it is, I reckon, only a matter of time before it explodes. Also watching with keen interest will be the likes of Fernando Alonso, the aforementioned Webber and Vettel, Ferrari and Red Bull.

Yes, this could well be the best season in Formula One for many a year…

Where do you see the title going and what do you expect to happen throughout the season at McLaren? Let us know in the comments.

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