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What now for Aston Villa and Martin O’Neill?

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Martin O'NeillIt’s unusual enough for a manager to quit a club just five days before a new season begins, it’s even more unusual when that manager is one such as Martin O’Neill.

The general consensus is that Villa owner Randy Lerner’s sell before you buy transfer policy for the summer and the coming season, along with the impending sale of James Milner to Manchester City and questions over how much of the fee he would get to spend was what led to O’Neill’s departure.

Personally, I can’t think of another reason so I’m prepared to accept that. I can’t help thinking Lerner has made a huge mistake, however. Who can better what O’Neill has achieved with Villa? Some of the names being batted around just don’t cut it. And Milner will still leave, depriving the club of one of their significant driving forces on the pitch.

Any incoming manager isn’t going to be able to strengthen or change the team before January as the window will close very soon, so he’ll have to make do. For Villa, the only way is surely down.

USA coach Bob Bradley has been touted as a possible replacement. Makes sense with Lerner being a Yank himself, though guiding the USA to the World Cup and topping the group stage is no preparation for the cut and thrust of the Premiership, as impressive as it might have been. That particular appointment would end in tears, I fear, not least for the Villa supporters.

Ajax’s Martin Jol would be a much better choice and has been linked, but he turned down Fulham to remain at the Dutch club so why would he move to Villa? No disrespect to them, but it’s not THAT much more of an attractive club. Can’t see that one happening at all.

Money motivated Sven-Goran Eriksson has inevitably been suggested too, but if money is the issue at Aston Villa it doesn’t seem like the right fit for the Swede. To be fair to Sven, it wouldn’t be a terrible choice, though I can’t see a single supporter being happy with it. Again, I just can’t see it happening.

Who else is available? Plenty, but none inspire confidence. Alan Curbishley (remember him!), Gareth Southgate, or what about a sensational and rather unlikely return for Graham Taylor? You can see Villa’s problem. In the meantime, reserve team boss Kevin MacDonald will take charge for the first game of the season. A win and a performance and who knows, maybe he could get the job – it would be easy and cheap after all…

Dark days ahead for the club then, but less so for O’Neill you feel. There isn’t a club available right now but you can bet he’ll be in demand in the Premiership and Championship when the first round of managerial cullings occurs and the way things are in football right now, that won’t be too far away.

O’Neill will take a holiday, I’m sure, then assess his future, look for his next challenge, because it’s challenges O’Neill thrives on. He could even bide his time and wait for the right job. If Manchester United win the league and Champions League Ferguson could retire, paving the way for O’Neill’s appointment. If England start their Euro 2012 qualifying campaign badly then Capello could be sacked and O’Neill would be near the top of the FA’s list of potential successors.

Both of these are long term possibilities for Martin O’Neill, though it remains to be seen if he’ll stay out of football that long. You tend to doubt it at the moment, he was enjoying his role with Villa and you get the impression he’d like to get back to it fairly quickly, even if he won’t go to just any old club.

So who in the Premiership could be sacked by Christmas?

Roberto Mancini needs a flying start after spending so much at Manchester City – he will be gone should that not happen and O’Neill would be a shoe-in for that job.

Alex McLeish’s job appears to be a little shaky at Birmingham at the moment with rumours of rifts between him and the board. That’s another club O’Neill would view as a challenge though one can only imagine the backlash from supporters at THAT appointment – on both sides of the Midlands divide!

Finally, a bad start for Newcastle United could end Chris Hughton’s reign at St James Park, though the lack of cash their could put O’Neill off.

There’s plenty of potential opportunity for O’Neill’s next job but nothing available right now. His stock is high, it always has been really, and he will be offered whatever comes up over the next few months. Where he finally chooses to go will be interesting.

I wish him well. He’s a good manager and a great character and I hope he’s back in football soon. For Villa, I have less generous feelings. They have – or rather Randy Lerner has – made a huge mistake in not giving the Irishman what he wanted and they will suffer for it.

James Milner: A £20m+ Gamble

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You’ll guess from the headline that we’re not as impressed with the talents of Aston Villa’s James Milner as some appear to be but you shouldn’t read that as us thinking he’s not a good player. He is, and has proved it over the last couple seasons for his club. He’s also very versatile, able to play right across the midfield and, on occasion, in either full back position.

James Milner

But in a transfer market where David Villa can be bought for £34 million and Barcelona are rumoured to want Cesc Fabregas for upwards of 45 million Euros, is he really two thirds the player Villa is? Or half a Fabregas? We don’t think so. Not even close. Not yet.

We’re baffled, then, by the £20m bid from Manchester City. We understand Aston Villa’s decision to reject it. They know Manchester City have an almost bottomless pit of wealth, thanks to their mega-rich benefactors, and they will try to squeeze as much out of them as they can – assuming Milner decides to leave, of course.

Chelsea are rumoured to be preparing to enter the bidding as well, backed by their own mega-rich benefactor, Roman Abramovic. With that sort of interest you can see the price for Milner approaching the £30m mark easily.

Even though English players come at a premium that figure is staggering for a player who just isn’t what you would term world class as yet.

Milner’s career started at Leeds United. He made his debut in 2002 at just at 16, then the youngest to appear in the Premiership. He then became the youngest to score in the Premiership until Everton’s James Vaughan broke that record. When the Yorkshire side went into decline and financial trouble, Milner was sold to Newcastle, where’d he’d make over 100 appearances.

A loan spell to Aston Villa – Milner didn’t enjoy life under Graeme Souness – looked like it would result in a transfer but the move failed and he returned to Newcastle, now managed by Glenn Roeder. In 2008 he handed in a written transfer request and was finally signed by Aston Villa for £12m.

That figure makes today’s asking price seem reasonable, perhaps. But we thought back then it was a lot of money.

However, Milner has flourished under Martin O’Neill, justifying that transfer fee to some extent. Whether on the left wing or in central midfield, Milner’s style of play makes him a great team player who provides valuable and frequent assists. Already an established international under-21 player, he has now progressed to the full England team and looks set to play an important role at this year’s World Cup in South Africa for Fabio Capello. Especially if Gareth Barry, his former team mate at Villa, fails to win his battle for fitness.

It sounds like we just made the case for a £20m plus transfer fee, doesn’t it. But we haven’t. We acknowledge that Milner is a good, good player. For us, though, a player commanding a fee of such size should be a proven international and appeared regularly in European competition. Milner doesn’t fit that bill – yet.

Youth also plays a part in setting your value and at 24 Milner is the right age, with his best years just around the corner. We assume that’s what Manchester City and Chelsea are prepared to gamble on – that he will get better over the next three or four seasons and become that proven international in the process. Hell of a gamble at that price though.

What this does prove is that we were right when we said that Manchester City’s failure to get into the Champions League would mean they’d have to set their sights lower than they would have liked in the transfer market. As good as Milner may become, we don’t think he was the man they had in mind when they were winning the race for the last Champions League spot. City would have been looking to the European mainland, to Italy, Spain and Germany.

Instead, they’re having to settle for a homegrown talent that hasn’t reached his potential yet. We hate to say we told you so, but…

Chelsea’s alleged interest is a little stranger. They do have the clout and the money to buy whoever they like. Champions of England, recent Champions League finalists, Double winners, packed with talent already – they should be a club any player in Europe with ambitions to win things would want to join. Yet here they are, looking to get into a bidding war for a player not yet proven outside of the Premiership.

A gamble for both clubs but one that could pay off. We do know this though – both clubs will be hoping to get him to sign before the World Cup kicks off. Because if he goes to South Africa and has the tournament of his life you can bet Martin O’Neill will be rejecting bids of £30m in July. And should that happen, we’ll quite happily accept that it’s no longer a gamble.

Beckham suffers World Cup heartbreak

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LA Galaxy/AC Milan and England right winger David Beckham is out of the 2010 World Cup after suffering a torn Achilles tendon in last night’s AC Milan versus Chievo match. Continue reading →