A second and very different evaluation of Manchester City and the season ahead this week, from Howard Hockin this time. Bear in mind it was written before the season began, so before the signing of Milner, the worrying 0-0 draw with Spurs and the rather more impressive 3-0 demolition of Liverpool…

It’s the $64,000 question. What does the season hold for City?

Or about $640 million to be more accurate. You’d be better off asking me who will win the World Cup in 2070 (China) or for Saturday’s winning lottery numbers (3,7,15,22,31,42 – not sure about the bonus ball).

For the first time since football began (1992), it’s almost too difficult to predict. Undoubtedly the aim for City is the top four as a minimum requirement. But I reckon most City fans would take 17th if we won a cup. I doubt our owners would though.

Title winners? I can’t see it myself. City still lack the mentality more than anything – we haven’t been there and done it before (not in colour anyway). We haven’t been challengers. Yes, some of the players have, but cityitis will soon sort that out. And all the while we have to incorporate a whole new raft of new players. The law of averages suggests they won’t all be a roaring success, immediately.
Or maybe the mentality problem is with the fans, and people like me. I just can’t predict success, I’ve had too many false dawns in the past. Better to predict nothing, sit back, and enjoy the ride.

Meanwhile, pre-season has been rather unproductive. Don’t get me wrong, I take little interest in pre-season results, and see it as little more than building up fitness, but as we approach a tricky start to the Premiership season away to Spurs, some of our new signings have barely played for City, whilst the rest have been trekking round the world on a corporate jolly. Tevez and Silva had little time on the pitch against Valencia, so are unlikely to feature heavily against Spurs. Add a ludicrous round of mid-week internationals, and we go into the new season relying on much of the old guard. I realise now “the brand” is important, but a bit more of our squad playing together would have been nice. A minor quibble though, to be honest, and Redknapp himself faces the same problem choosing 11 players that he hasn’t laid eyes on all week.

Throughout the summer the City message boards have been alive with talk of the “wow” signing. A football message board during a transfer window is a wind up merchant’s paradise, and so it proved, as endless, tedious threads were started alleging we were in discussions with Ronaldo, or that Messi had been seen at the airport or Ribery has been ushered into COMS via a secret tunnel that ran all the way from the town hall. I only made one of those up by the way.

Either way, I think we can all agree that City’s obscene spending spree has killed football. Of course, news of Liverpool possibly being taken over by a billionaire and spending big was met with elation and without a hint of criticism by all at Talksport and Radio 5, but then I remembered – they were quite good twenty years ago, so that’s OK.

But the signings so far really excite me. The current pursuit of James Milner (hopefully concluded by the time you read this, but probably not) has been met with disdain by some, because suddenly going after the current young player of the year is simply not good enough (a highly-rated foreigner is much better). How far we have come, how short some people’s memories are. I still remember the relief on hearing we had squeezed through the signing of Benjani. Or on hearing that we were after Mido on transfer deadline day thinking “hmm, he could do a job..”, something I convinced myself when we re-signed Paul Dickov.
Needless to say, most Villa fans have now decided Milner is rubbish. So is O’ Neill. Some things never change.

David Silva, Yaya Toure and Kolarov are three signings that take us up another level. Two good, young players and one highly-experienced player who should be in his prime. And I will be glad if we never make a galacticos signing. Previous attempts suggest we have dodged a few bullets – Ronaldino, Kaka and Terry are shells of the players we thought we would get. No, buying up-and-coming young players is definitely the best policy for me.

So what does the squad look like as we begin another season?

The main s**t-stirring in the media has been about how to keep all these players happy, these monstrous egos, because as we all know from reading the papers, City have 15 strikers, 8 defensive midfielders and 10 centre backs. Whilst normally I would lay into such tiresome criticism, I do agree it will be a major job for Mancini to get the rotation right, and keep the troops happy. We all know what delicate flowers footballers are. Already, and the season hasn’t begun yet, Hart and Given have made public noises about not being prepared to sit on the bench, whilst Bellamy has had his six-monthly strop, suggesting he is ready to start the season at a new club, as is the tradition.

Given above all though should know better than to vent frustrations, however eloquently expressed, in public. Very unprofessional indeed. And as for Bellamy…(more later).

Of course, it seems to be par for the course to assess teams as if no one ever got injured and as if City only played one game a week. The reality will of course be very different. With three average-good cup runs we would play around 55 games, and could theoretically play over 65 (unlikely as that may be). More than ever, football is a squad game. This is why Mancini wants two players in every position.

If I could pinpoint one area of weakness, then central defence would still be my prime concern. Boateng looks a great prospect but isn’t quite there yet – and will he be played centrally or at right-back? Toure has never convinced (me), Lescott needs to stay fit and have time in the team, whilst Onuoha, Richards and Bridge just aren’t doing it, and Nedum has been shipped on loan now to Sunderland. Onuoha and Richards still have time on their side though, so should not be sold permanently, though Richards needs to concentrate on being a footballer, and Onuoha needs to take any concerns to the manager, not broadcast them on Soccer AM. The right back area is an area of uncertainty, but all the signs suggest we have solved our left-back problem with the signing of Kolarov. I have high hopes for him.

The midfield is strong, has depth, and is full of options. Yaya Toure is far more than the defensive midfielder that the press have made him out to be. He can easily be an effective box to box player (and am sure he will be), a man pushed out of Barcelona by a Catalan, and Catalans always take priority at Barcelona. He even showed against Man United he is equally capable of doing a job at centre half.

Silva excites me more than anyone, as attacking players inevitably do. Great skill, great control, just great – one of the unluckiest players in the world to be a Spaniard in 2010 when the midfield is so overloaded with talent. I just hope he adapts to his new surroundings.

And the great thing about the purchases is that we now have players who can play in various positions, giving the team great flexibility. Silva could play on either wing, though would probably prefer to be central behind a striker. Toure could play in defence at a push, as a defensive midfielder, or as mentioned, as a box to box midfielder.  Milner is highly versatile as i am sure you will all know. Out wide, central, even full back.  Lescott and Boateng can play central or left back, Richards central or right back, and so on.

Upfront, we are strong, with the expectation of at least one extra new player by the end of August. Dzeko would have been great, but seems unlikely. Balotelli, if captured would probably play out wide but provides depth upfront, something Santa Cruz, Jo etc do not do (well, except on Football Manager 2010). He may not be an automatic starter just yet though. Questions inevitably have been raised about his attitude whilst being often subjected to racial abuse in Italy, but Mancini knows him well, and he seems ideally suited physically to the demands of the premier league.

There is a general expectation that City will take the form of a 4-1-3-2 in matches at Eastlands and 4-2-3-1 away from home. We will see. Elsewhere though, loads of questions remain – who will be sold, who will be loaned out, who makes the 25-man squad, homegrown rules need to be met (we do that comfortably), will Robinho get his move to warmer climes, or should we make a stand, who takes the right-sided berths? Oh, and a note to Bellamy – feel free to sod off to Celtic as soon as possible.

Finally, the enigma that is Stephen Ireland. It seems clear now he has little future with us, and should be off to Aston Villa. This has not gone down well with many City fans, who think him superior to Milner, but in terms of attitude, commitment and desire, there is simply no comparison, and it seems this has sealed Ireland’s fate. Either way, Mancini has seen much more of him than we have – we must trust he has good reason to break ties with such a skilful, yet inconsistent player.

So what do others think? Football365 says:

But with regards to the question of whether City can last the course as title contenders then the doubts have to centre on the aforementioned absence of a top-class defender, the impression that City lack an on-field leader, and the likely incompatibility of regular rotation with the need to mould a team that adds up to the sum of its parts. It also goes without saying that the odds on City triumphing would be significantly tighter if only they had recruited David Villa, Fernando Torres or Edin Dzeko, but Emmanuel Adebayor registered 14 goals from just 25 starts last term and Mancini evidently has a great deal of faith in the potential of Mario Balotelli.

Daniel Taylor over at The Guardian says:

A personal view is that they are one season away from catching and overhauling Chelsea and United but this will be the year they make it to a cup final and reach the Champions League. For now, they will have to make do with the Europa League…
But then it comes back to the fact City have not won a trophy since the League Cup in 1976. Towards the end of last season, a group of City fans tried to steal the infamous ‘ticker’ banner from Old Trafford, gaining entry via one of the stadium tours. They were foiled. Now, damn it, it’s down to the team. But if they fail, the harsh reality of this cut-throat, knee-jerk world is that Mancini will probably go the same way as Hughes.

If I was to put on some bets, I’d be quite sure of Mancini to be there still at the end of the season, us to be big scorers over the course of the nine months, not to finish in the top two, and sadly I have an awful feeling United will somehow regain the league title.

If I had to predict a finishing position for City, then my heart says 3rd, my head 4th. And one good cup run as well. The Guardian writers predict an average of 2nd, the Independent on Sunday said 6th. Sid Lowe predicts first, Robbie Savage 2nd, the BBC pundits average prediction has us as 4th. I’m buoyed somewhat by Tony Cascarino having us down for 7th – asking him his predictions is akin to taking advice off Paul Gascoigne in a hostage situation – so maybe we’ll win the title afterall.

Or get relegated.

Typical City.